7 trend and stage patterns
Trend-following setups: Stage 2 uptrends, power trends, golden crosses, 52-week highs and moving-average pullbacks, used to define regime rather than to time an entry.
What trend and stage patterns have in common
These are not shapes so much as conditions. A Stage 2 uptrend, a power trend or a golden cross describes the state a stock is in rather than a formation it has traced, and the conventional use is as a filter: narrow the universe to stocks whose trend structure is constructive, then look for a specific setup within that group. The framework behind most of them traces to Stan Weinstein's four-stage model and William O'Neil's work on leading stocks.
- Each describes an ongoing condition rather than a discrete event with a start and end
- Moving averages do most of the work, so all of them lag by construction
- They are filters first and entries second, since most qualify a stock only after it has already advanced
- The pullback patterns in this family are the exception: they exist to time an entry inside a trend the others identify
What these patterns are telling you
Everything in this family lags by design. A moving average confirms what price has already done, so these conditions arrive after a move is underway and fade once it has ended. A trend condition on its own carries no defined invalidation level, which is why traders conventionally use it to build a watchlist and lean on a base or pullback pattern for timing.
PatternGrade grades what it finds and publishes how each grade has performed. It is not a financial advisor and does not give buy or sell recommendations.
Every trend and stage pattern PatternGrade scans
Rescanned across ~4,500 US stocks end-of-day, after every close.
Stage 2 UptrendThe advancing phase of Stan Weinstein's stage analysis: price and moving averages aligned and rising. Scanned after every close across every liquid US stock.
Power TrendA strict, high-quality uptrend regime, the strongest tier of trend condition. PatternGrade scans every liquid US stock for power trends after every close.
Golden CrossThe 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day. PatternGrade scans every liquid US stock for fresh golden crosses after each close.
52-Week HighStocks trading at or near their highest price of the past year. PatternGrade lists new 52-week highs across every liquid US stock after each close.
New High PullbackA stock that made a recent 52-week high and has since pulled back in an orderly way. Scanned after every close across every liquid US stock.
20-Day SMA BounceA pullback to the 20-day moving average that holds and turns back up. PatternGrade scans every liquid US stock for 20-day bounces after each close.
Pullback to SMAA controlled pullback into a longer-term moving average within an intact uptrend. Scanned across every liquid US stock after each close.
Trend and stage patterns FAQ
What is the difference between Stage 2 and a power trend?
Stage 2 is the broad regime: price above a rising long-term moving average after a base. A power trend adds persistence and alignment requirements most Stage 2 stocks fail. The full moving-average stack has to be correctly ordered and rising, price has to hold above the short-term average for weeks, and every pullback has to stay shallow. Every power trend is a Stage 2; few Stage 2s are power trends.
Are moving average crossovers useful?
As regime labels, moderately. As timing signals, weakly — they lag by construction, and in sideways markets they whipsaw repeatedly. The golden cross in particular has a reputation well ahead of anything that has been carefully demonstrated. PatternGrade reports the crossover as a fact about the moving averages and leaves the interpretation to you; it does not attach a success rate to it.
Should I buy a stock just because it is in an uptrend?
A trend condition gives you no defined invalidation level, which is the practical problem with acting on it directly. The usual approach is to use the trend to decide what to watch and a pullback or base pattern to decide when. That is why this family and the chart-pattern family are normally read together.
Which moving averages do these patterns use?
Weinstein's framework leans on a long-term average, roughly the 150-day. The golden and death crosses use the 50-day and 200-day. The pullback patterns use the 20-day for short horizons and the 50-day for swing horizons. PatternGrade applies that logic on daily bars.
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