Death Cross
A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average, conventionally the 50-day, crosses below a longer-term one, conventionally the 200-day. It is a lagging confirmation that the intermediate trend has turned down relative to the long-term trend.
- Bias
- Bearish
- Category
- Short Setups
- Scan cadence
- Every close
What has to be true for a Death Cross to trigger
- The short-term average crossing below the long-term average
- The cross being recent rather than historical
- Supporting trend context around the crossover
How PatternGrade grades it
A cross occurring with the long-term average already rolling over grades higher than one that happens while both averages are still rising.
Every scanner grades its hits A+, A or B from the pattern's own measurable structure. The grading is deterministic — the same chart always produces the same grade. It describes how closely the chart matches the pattern, not how likely anything is to happen; no hit rate or probability is attached to a grade. The reasoning is set out in the methodology.
What a Death Cross looks like in practice
A stock tops at $58 in February and grinds down to $39 by July. In late July the 50-day moving average, falling since April, crosses below the 200-day average, which has just begun to roll over. Price at the crossover is around $40, already 31% off the high and near the low of the decline.
How a Death Cross fails
The cross marks the bottom rather than the start of a decline. Because both averages lag, a death cross often arrives after most of the damage is done, and shorting into one has a long history of being an expensive way to sell the low. In choppy markets the two averages cross back and forth, producing a run of signals that each lose.
What this pattern is telling you
The death cross is heavily lagging and widely publicised. It frequently marks a point closer to a short-term low than a high.
PatternGrade is not a financial advisor and does not give buy or sell recommendations. Targets and stops shown on a pattern are reference levels derived from its geometry, not advice.
How to scan for Death Cross setups
PatternGrade rescans every liquid US stock (~4,500 names) for this pattern after every close and returns the hits as a graded list, with the pattern drawn on each chart, so you review setups rather than hunt for them.
Join the waitlist to be invited when sign-ups reopen and see the current Death Cross list, or browse all 75 patterns.
Death Cross FAQ
What is a death cross?
When the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. It is a lagging signal that the intermediate trend has turned down.
Is the death cross a reliable sell signal?
It is a lagging trend confirmation, not a timing tool. Because both averages look backward, the cross often occurs well after the high, and sometimes near a bottom.
Is the death cross a reliable sell signal?
On its own, only modestly, and its reputation exceeds its record. It is a lagging confirmation of a decline already well underway, and it has repeatedly appeared near intermediate lows. It is more useful as a regime label than as a timing tool.
Which averages form a death cross?
Conventionally the 50-day crossing below the 200-day on daily bars. That is the pairing the term refers to and the one PatternGrade scans; shorter pairings produce faster and noisier signals.
Does the 200-day need to be falling?
It is a considerably stronger signal when it is. A 50-day crossing below a still-rising 200-day usually reflects a sharp but contained pullback within an intact uptrend, and those crosses reverse often. PatternGrade weights the slope of the long-term average.
How long does it take price to recover after a death cross?
There is no dependable answer, and quoting an average would be misleading given how much it varies by period and market. PatternGrade publishes no average and no hit rate; the methodology page explains that decision.
Patterns a Death Cross is mistaken for
- Golden Cross
- The bullish mirror: the 50-day crossing above the 200-day.
- Stage 4 Downtrend
- Stage 4 is an ongoing regime defined by price below a falling long-term average. A death cross is a single crossover event, often near its start.
- MACD Bearish Cross
- MACD uses much shorter exponential averages and is far faster. A death cross is a long-horizon regime marker.
- Breakdown Below SMA
- That pattern is price losing a single average. A death cross is two averages crossing each other.
Last reviewed . Structure and grading for the Death Cross are reviewed against the scanner's own rules.